Nws tau ntau dua ob lub hlis txij li Trump tswj hwm ntawm Asmeskas cov lus sib npaug ntawm cov khoom siv Suav, thiab cov nqi se rau qee yam khoom tau mus txog ntau dua 100%. Cov kev ntsuas no tau kos tau saib xyuas los ntawm sab nraud ntiaj teb: tawm tsam ntawm kev loj hlob qeeb ntawm 2024, Suav kev lag luam rov qab hauv 2025 yuav raug cuam tshuam rau qee qhov. Cov ntaub ntawv tseeb qhia tau hais tias muaj cov cim ntawm kev ua kom qeeb hauv Suav teb cov kev tsim khoom lag luam thaum lub Plaub Hlis thiab Tsib Hlis. Raws li ntau yam tshuaj xyuas, nws ntseeg tau tias txawm hais tias tam sim no cov nyiaj txiag tam sim no yuav tsis ua rau kev lag luam tseem ceeb rau kev lag luam kom rov qab los rau kev muaj zog.
Qhov cuam tshuam ntawm Tuam Tshoj cov khoom lag luam xa thiab kev nthuav qhia ntawm cov cim tseem ceeb:
1, Kev tsim kev lag luam kev lag luam txoj kev vam meej thiab kev xa tawm yog kev ntxhov siab
China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) briefly rebounded to the expansion zone (>5 {0.}}}}}}}) Thaum Lub Ob Hlis Ntuj thiab Lub Peb Hlis Ntuj hauv lub Plaub Hlis thiab Lub Tsib Hlis, sau 49.5 feem. Lub ib txhij tsis muaj zog export cov ntaub ntawv lees paub txog qhov kev nthuav dav ntawm lub Plaub Hlis Ntuj hauv lub Plaub Hlis Ntuj hauv 12.3% nyob rau hauv peb lub hlis ua ntej yuav muaj kev sib tw tau txais cov nyhuv tag nrho. Structural analysis shows that the US market, which accounted for 15% of China's total exports in 2024 (the third-largest trading partner), saw its exports to the US drop by 21% year-on-year in April 2025, highlighting the substantial suppression of export volume by tariffs
2, tus nqi qis ntawm tus nqi txuas ntxiv
Raws li lub Plaub Hlis 2025, tus neeg siv khoom nqe index (CPI) thiab cov neeg tsim nyog nqe index (PPI) txuas ntxiv mus poob xyoo, qhia tias qhov kev pheej hmoo txaus ntshai tseem tsis tau muaj eased. Kev kis mechanism yog manifested raws li hauv qab no: cuam tshuam los ntawm qhov tsis muaj zog xav hauv kev ua lag luam Asmeskas, thiab kev sib tw hauv tsev yog ntsib cov kev cov nyom, yog li siv tau qis qis qis ntawm cov nqi.
3, Cov Khoom Siv Hluav Taws Xob Hluav Taws Xob Hluav Taws Xob: Lub "Tuam Tshoj +1" "zoo
Cov kev cai TMID ntawm Tebchaws Meskas muaj catchalyzed lub cheeb tsam hloov pauv ntawm muaj peev xwm tsim tau, thiab cov txheej txheem kev siv ntawm "}" "Ntau Lawm}" Kev tsim kom muaj kev tsim khoom muaj nrawm. Cov qauv no tau cuam tshuam txog kev txhim kho lwm qhov chaw tsim khoom lag luam xws li Southeast Asia thiab Is Nrias teb. Lawv cov khoom lag luam tsim tawm (mio) yuav tsum nce li ntawm 4.0%, uas yog siab dua li Tuam Tshoj cov kev cia siab ntawm 2.9%.
Raws li cov lus sib kis saum toj no los, hauv lub Tsib Hlis 2025, peb tau hloov kho txhua xyoo kev loj hlob ntawm lub Ob Hlis rau ntawm 3.2% kwv yees thaum Lub Ob Hlis mus rau 2.9%.
Txoj kev rov qab hloov kho thiab cov cim tseem ceeb ntawm kev xav tau hauv Suav teb
Txawm hais tias muaj ntau txoj kev sib tw hauv kev xa tawm, Tuam Tshoj cov kev lag luam hauv tsev tau ua kom muaj kev rov qab los thiab cov cim qhia maj mam ua:
1, lub resilience ntawm cov neeg siv khoom lag luam tau tawm
Nyob rau lub Plaub Hlis 2025, tag nrho cov muag khoom muag khoom ntawm cov neeg siv khoom lag luam tau nce los ntawm 2024. Coupled nrog qhov tseeb tias cov khoom lag luam qub txeeg qub teg thiab cov khoom lag luam tau pib ruaj ntseg piv rau xyoo tas los, nws yog qhov zoo rau kev rov qab los ntawm cov neeg siv khoom kev ntseeg siab.
2, qhov hloov pauv ntawm cov nyiaj tau los rau kev lag luam kev lag luam tau txais kev paub tseeb
Cov txiaj ntsig ntawm kev lag luam lag luam tau pib rov qab los ntawm lub Peb Hlis 2025, xaus kev poob qis dua rau rau lub hlis. Txawm hais tias cov khoom siv se tau muab cov chaw xa khoom Suav hauv qab cov khoom lag luam uas muaj txiaj ntsig los ntawm kev sib tw ntawm 2023 txog 2024.
Hauv 2025, muaj cov cim ntawm kev ruaj khov thiab txhim kho hauv cov peev txheej muaj peev xwm ntawm Tuam Tshoj cov lag luam lag luam
3. Txoj kev vam meej ntawm kev tsim kho kev tsim kho tau zoo dua
Piv nrog ob xyoos dhau los, kev poob qis hauv kev muag khoom av tau yooj yim me ntsis. Ib qho ntxiv, kev muag khoom ntawm excavators, uas yog ua lub tshuab hluav taws xob ntawm Tuam Tshoj txoj kev tsim kho, tau pom ib qho kev nce qib tseem ceeb. Hauv thawj peb lub hlis ntawm 2025, cov zaub mov xa tuaj ntim sawv los ntawm 23.8% xyoo-nyob rau-xyoo, thiab kev xa khoom hauv tsev tau nce los ntawm 38.3%. Kev siv ntawm tsoomfwv cov phiaj xwm kev tsim kho thiab cov cai them nyiaj ntsig xws li kev hloov pauv hloov rau kev hloov kho tau txais kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam no.
Qhov xam pom
Zuag qhia tag nrho, txawm tias yog cov kev cov nyom tau coj los ntawm cov nyom, Tuam Tshoj kev lag luam kev lag luam tau yooj yim. Nws cia siab tias txoj kev tsim khoom loj ntawm Tuam Tshoj cov khoom lag luam tso cai (MID) Tsav tsheb tseem ceeb rau cov puag ncig no rov qab.
Hauv lub sijhawm nruab nrab, raws li kev lag luam me me, Tuam Tshoj kev lag luam lag luam tsim nyog yuav tsum tau muaj kev loj hlob ruaj khov thiab kev loj hlob tsawg. Nyob rau tsib xyoos tom ntej, vim qee cov tuam ntxhab thoob ntiaj teb tsim muaj peev txheej ntau dua hauv Is Nrias teb thiab qee qhov kev lag luam hauv qab teb chaws tuaj yeem muaj kev loj hlob sai. Qhov "mus thoob ntiaj teb" kev ua lag luam tseem yuav coj txoj hauv kev loj hlob loj dua rau Suav tsim khoom lag luam.